2010 NCAA Predictions
November 13, 2009I wrote down some predictions about who I think will take home the hardware from NCAAs. Mostly I took into account results from last year and best times. I've only predicted individual events, since relays won't shape up until the conference meets.
Women:
500 Free:
Gold: Allison Schmitt, Georgia
Silver: Wendy Trott, Georgia
Bronze: Sara Isokovic, California
200 IM:
Gold: Julia Smit, Stanford
Silver: Katinka Hosszu, Southern California
Bronze: Kathleen Hersey, Texas
50 Free:
Gold: Michelle King, Tennessee
Silver: Anne-Marie Botek, Georgia
Bronze: Triin Aljand, Texas A&M
400 IM:
Gold: Katinka Hosszu, Southern California
Silver: Julia Smit, Stanford
Bronze: Kathleen Hersey, Texas
100 Fly:
Gold: Elaine Breeden, Stanford
Silver: Amanda Sims, California
Bronze: Hannah Wilson, California
200 Free:
Gold: Allison Schmitt, Georgia
Silver: Sara Isokovic, California
Bronze: Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
100 Breast:
Gold: Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
Silver: Ann Chandler, Arizona
100 Back:
Gold: Gemma Spofforth, Florida
Silver: Kate Fesenko, Indiana
1,650 Free:
Gold: Wendy Trott, Georgia
Silver: Emily Brunemann, Michigan
200 Back:
Gold: Gemma Spofforth, Florida
Silver: Teresa Crippen, Florida
Bronze: Kate Fesenko, Indiana
100 Free:
Gold: Julia Smit, Stanford
Silver: Kate Dwelley, Stanford
Bronze: Caitlin Geary, Auburn
200 Breast:
Gold: Alia Atkinson, Texas A&M
200 Fly:
Gold: Kathleen Hersey, Texas
Silver: Katinka Hosszu, Southern California
Bronze: Elaine Breeden, Stanford
Overall Team Winner: Georgia
Men:
500 Free:
Gold: Dan Madwed, Michigan
Silver: Matt McLean, Virginia
Bronze: Chad LaTourette, Stanford
200 IM:
Gold: Tyler Clary, Michigan
Silver: Ricky Berens, Texas
50 Free:
Gold: Nathan Adrian, California
Silver: Jimmy Feigen, Texas
Bronze: Gideon Louw, Auburn
400 IM:
Gold: Tyler Clary, Michigan
Silver: Gal Nevo, Georgia Tech
Bronze: Jack Brown, Arizona
100 Fly:
Gold: Austin Staab, Stanford
Silver: Tyler McGill, Auburn
Bronze: Chris Brady, Michigan
200 Free:
Gold: David Walters, Texas
Silver: Shaune Fraser, Florida
Bronze: Ricky Berens, Texas
100 Breast:
Gold: Damir Dugonjic, California
Silver: Scott Spann, Texas
Bronze: Adam Klein, Auburn
100 Back:
Gold: Pascal Wollach, Auburn
Silver: David Russell, California
Bronze: Cole Craigin, Texas
1,650 Free:
Gold: Chad LaTourette, Stanford
Silver: Troy Prinsloo, Georgia
Bronze: Jackson Wilcox, Texas
200 Back:
Gold: Tyler Clary, Michigan
200 Breast:
Gold: Scott Spann, Texas
Silver: Adam Klein, Auburn
200 Fly:
Gold: Mark Dylla, Georgia
Silver: Dan Madwed, Michigan
Bronze: Shaune Fraser, Florida
Overall Team Winner: Texas
Reader Comments (6)
Nice picks, David.
Just a heads up, Zubkova is Kate Fesenko now. She married former IU distance swimmer Sergiy Fesenko in the offseason. Small world when you are both Ukrainian and have swum on the Ukrainian national team together, and it takes you both swimming for Indiana in Bloomington to find your soulmate. From everything I've heard, it was a nice, simple ceremony.
Jason
You heavily favor Texas in all of your predictions on the men's side. Although this may FINALLY be the year that Texas doesn't choke at NCAA's, no way does Cole Craigin get 3rd in the 100 back, and no way does Shaune Fraser get beat Dave Walters in the 200 free. You also should consider Tom Shields in the 200 free, although he is only a freshmen, he still went 1:33 last year with club/high school training. Also what makes you think Mark Dylla AND Dan Madwed beat Shaune Fraser in the 200 fly? Look at the results from Georgia/Florida already this year. No way does anyone touch Shaune in the 200 fly. The defending champ Kohlton Norys from Auburn doesn't even manage a top 3 finish in the 100 back? Scott Spann is running out of gas, fast. He isn't even the best breastroker on the Texas roster right now. You left the silver and bronze open for the 200 back; Cory Chitwood, back from shoulder surgery, should fill one of those spots. Also don't count out one of the best transfer swimmers from last year, currently on the Arizona roster, Clark Burckle to contend in the 200 breast and 400 IM.
Here's the thing about Kohlton Norys. I didn't hear a peep about him from NCAAs until this past week (which was AFTER I wrote these predictions). I thought maybe he had graduated or retired or something. Usually the top guys at NCAAs at least SHOW UP at Nationals!
I'm sticking with Walters in the 200 free. Fraser won last year by a large chunk, but Walters came back an hour later on the relay and went a time 0.02 slower than Fraser's winning time, and he's made huge strides long course. He's got it this year. You're right about Shields, and he could be in it, especially if Berens doesn't do the 200 free.
I agree about Chitwood and Burckle.
I like Cole Craigin because he's beaten his teammate Hill Taylor several times (I think) this season, and Taylor was 3rd last year. Really just guessing right now, anyway!
Spann will be back. Count on it.
I considered Andrew Gemmell (freshman at Georgia) for the 400 IM, but those three guys won't give much. Also, keep an eye on Dan Madwed and Charlie Houchin of Michigan as spoilers in the 200 free. Houchin could squeeze into the 400 as well.
There's also the guessing game over what events Berens swims. He says he's sticking with the 200 IM, but other than that, it's anyone's guess. The NCAA schedule was not designed for him with his best events (100 fly/200 free) back-to-back.
Would not be a bit surprised to see Houchin in the 200free but Madwed will face the same choice as Berens with the 2 free and 1 fly. Its all going to be about points and putting your guys where they can score and are needed for the team.
I would have to add Prinsloo to the 1650 and not sure how you can leave Basson out of the 500 although not sure which of those 3 you have listed you would take out, probably la tourette. I think it will be a great battle between he and prinsloo for the mile
Also as far as freshman beating their elders at early season duel meets...well, that doesnt mean much.They should be fired up and come out of the gate smoking...We will see come conference time.
Shields is a huge talent but do not think he will make top 3 but should make the A final which is huge for a freshman
Whoops! For some reason I thought Basson had graduated. THIS is his senior year. He will certainly be a medal favorite in the 500 and an outside chance in the 200.
Madwed would do the 200 over the 100 fly. His freestyle's really coming along. The guy split 1:45 on the prelim relay at worlds. He would score a lot more points in the 200 free than 100 fly.
Also I have Clary doing the 200 back over 200 fly, which based on event depth seems like an obvious decision. What do you guys think? Should he give up the 200 IM so he can do both the 200 back and 200 fly?
yeah, don't forget Basson, he is going to be making some top 3 places. I believe you are missing the men's 100 free prediction.
___________________
http://swimscience.blogspot.com/